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Asia stocks mixed before Merkel speech, jobs data (AP)



BANGKOK – Asian stock markets were mixed Friday as markets nervously awaited U.S. employment figures and a key speech by German Chancellor Angela Merkel in hopes she might unveil new steps to stanch Europe’s escalating debt crisis.

Benchmark oil lingered above $100 per barrel while the dollar rose against the euro and the yen.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 0.4 percent to 8,627.85, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.1 percent to 4,272.90. But South Korea’s Kospi was marginally down at 1,913.88 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.5 percent to 18,909.07. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia and mainland China were also lower. Malaysia and New Zealand rose.

Merkel’s speech Friday before Germany’s parliament about Europe’s financial crisis comes ahead of a summit of European Union leaders on Dec. 9, whose goal is to deliver a long-term solution to the debt crisis.

Merkel has acknowledged the need for changes to the European Union treaty to impose stricter financial controls on countries that use the euro common currency to prevent them from taking on too much debt.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and the central banks of Canada, Japan and Switzerland said they were working together to make it easier for banks to borrow dollars.

The coordinated effort was meant to prevent Europe’s debt crisis from exploding into a global panic. Should a European bank fail or if a country default on its debt, investors fear it could result in a freeze-up in global lending like the one that occurred in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed.

China’s central bank also acted to release money for lending and to shore up growth by lowering bank reserve levels for the first time in three years. The bank actions caused global stocks to rally Thursday.

Linus Yip, a strategist at First Shanghai Securities in Hong Kong, said the huge boost to markets on Thursday led some investors to cash in shares for profits Friday.

“We had a big gain yesterday. The Hang Seng gained about 1,000 points, so for today maybe it is reasonable to consolidate,” Yip said.

Gambling shares were among those being sold off. Hong Kong-listed Wynn Macau lost 6.5 percent and SJM Holdings Ltd. fell 4.5 percent.

South Korea’s Samsung Electronics fell 1.3 percent after Australia’s highest court temporarily extended a ban on sales of the company’s Galaxy tablet computers in the country. The case stems from a suit by Apple that accuses Samsung of copying the iPad and iPhone and violating Apple’s patents.

Another rise in applications for weekly U.S. unemployment benefits dampened the mood on Wall Street on Thursday.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.2 percent to close at 12,020.03. The S&P 500 index slipped 0.2 percent to 1,244.59. The tech-heavy Nasdaq inched up 0.2 percent to 2,626.

The Labor Department said initial applications rose to 402,000 last week, the second weekly increase in a row. The figures didn’t change expectations for the government’s monthly labor report, which comes out Friday. Economists forecast that the unemployment rate will remain at 9 percent.

Traders also got little encouragement from a better manufacturing report. The Institute for Supply Management said that manufacturing grew last month at the fastest pace since June. The crucial jobs report for November will be released by the Labor Department on Friday.

Benchmark oil for January delivery was down 7 cents to $100.13 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. The contract lost 16 cents to end at $100.20 per barrel on the Nymex on Thursday.

In currency trading, the euro fell to $1.3458 from $1.3460 late Thursday in New York. The dollar rose to 77.78 yen from 77.76 yen.

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Asia stocks mixed before German leader speaks (AP)



BANGKOK – Asian stock markets were mixed Friday, a day after rallying on news that six of the world’s central banks slashed borrowing costs for banks to shore up Europe’s financial system and prevent its debt crisis from getting worse.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 0.4 percent to 8,629.81, and Australia’s S&P ASX 200 gained 0.5 percent to 4,248.30. But South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.3 percent to 1,911.31 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.3 percent to 18,939.18. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Singapore and mainland China were also lower.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will speak before Germany’s parliament about Europe’s financial crisis and next Friday’s EU summit.

Hopes are that European leaders will deliver a long-term solution to the debt crisis at the summit.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and the central banks of Canada, Japan and Switzerland said they were working together to make it easier for banks to borrow dollars.

The coordinated effort was meant to prevent Europe’s debt crisis from exploding into a global panic. Should a European bank fail or if a country default on its debt, investors fear it could result in a freeze-up in global lending markets like the one that occurred in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed.

Another rise in applications for weekly U.S. unemployment benefits dampened the mood on Wall Street on Thursday. Traders took little encouragement from a better manufacturing report. The Institute for Supply Management said that manufacturing grew last month at the fastest pace since June.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.2 percent to close at 12,020.03. The S&P 500 index slipped 0.2 percent to 1,244.59. The tech-heavy Nasdaq inched up 0.2 percent to 2,626.

The Labor Department said initial applications rose to 402,000 last week, the second weekly increase in a row. The figures didn’t change expectations for the government’s monthly labor report, which comes out Friday. Economists forecast that the unemployment rate will remain at 9 percent.

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Wall St falls before confidence vote in Greece (Reuters)



NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks retreated on Friday as political instability in Europe overshadowed encouraging domestic jobs data and investors focused on the uncertainty surrounding a confidence vote in the Greek parliament after U.S. markets close.

Financial markets have been engulfed by volatility less than a week after investors thought they had a framework for a solution to Europe's woes. The vote on the Greek Prime Minister leaves the fate of $130 billion bailout deal hanging in the balance with investors again chewing over worst-case scenarios.

"My main conclusion is that, strip away the debt and everything else, having Greece in the euro is untenable," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.

Ablin, who just returned from meeting with economists in Athens, said he believes the nation is on a slow and painful road to abandoning the euro and reinstating the drachma, an outcome that could spell months of trouble in financial markets.

Stock sectors most exposed to weakness in European banks and tied to growth, such as industrials, financials, materials and energy were among the weakest. The S&P's financial index led losses, falling 1.7 percent.

Although the S&P 500 has rallied 14 percent since its October low to the upper end of its recent trading range, the market has struggled to move higher and the outlook for Europe continues to be murky.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 89.80 points, or 0.75 percent, to 11,954.67. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 10.15 points, or 0.80 percent, to 1,251.00. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 13.08 points, or 0.48 percent, to 2,684.89.

Financial shares slumped, with the KBW capital markets index down 1.6 percent.

Shares of Jefferies Group Inc lost as much as 7.4 percent after brokerage Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut Jefferies target price but said the investment bank is being "unjustly punished" over perceived exposure to the European debt crisis.

The shares recovered by the afternoon to trade almost flat at $11.98 after losing nearly 20 percent this week.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said hardly any countries in the Group of 20 industrialized nations are willing to participate in the euro zone bailout fund, throwing cold water on plans to stabilize Europe's sovereign debt crisis.

Labor Department data showed U.S. hiring slowed in October but the unemployment rate hit a six-month low and job gains in the prior two months were stronger than previously thought, pointing to some improvement in the still-weak labor market.

"Point one right now is clearly the Greek situation because that thing has got to be resolved very soon or else there will be issues that we are not going to care to address," said Cummins Catherwood, managing director at Boenning and Scattergood in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.

"We are all absolutely transfixed by this and it has overcome the jobs report today, which was mildly encouraging but again nothing to write home about."

The PHLX Europe sector index, which includes major European shares, dropped 2.3 percent.

The focus on developments from Europe has kept stock trading volatile, with the S&P 500 index swinging more than 1.5 percent every day this week. The index is on track to post its first negative week in five after closing on Monday with its best month in 20 years.

In a move to make its deficit targets credible, Italy agreed to have the International Monetary Fund monitor the country's progress with long delayed reforms of pensions, labor markets and privatization. Italy's debt burden could be the market's next target after a resolution of Greece's finances.

Shares of daily deals site Groupon Inc rose more than 50 percent in their stock market debut, but at least some of the early trading exuberance may have come from limiting the fraction of the company that was sold.

(Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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A year-end stock comeback? It’s happened before (AP)



NEW YORK – 2011 was shaping up to be a washout for the stock market just two weeks ago. Now, it’s within shouting distance of its biggest comeback in nearly three decades.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 index has jumped 11.4 percent since hitting its lowest level of the year on Oct. 3, largely because investors have become more confident that Europe will shelter its banks from huge losses on Greek bonds should that country’s government stop making payments on its debt. For much of the summer, investors feared that a Greek default could lead to a freeze of lending between European banks and cascade into a credit crisis similar to the one in 2008.

The S&P 500 was down 12.6 percent for the year as of Oct. 3, when it closed at 1,099. As of Friday, it had trimmed the loss to 2.6 percent. It needs to gain just 33 points, or 2.8 percent, to get above 1,257, where it started the year.

If the S&P 500 finishes the year with a gain, it will be the biggest turnaround since 1984. That year, Apple Inc. introduced the Macintosh, and President Ronald Reagan’s campaign ads proclaimed that it was “Morning Again in America.” It was also the last time that the S&P 500 fell more than 10 percent during a calendar year and finished the year in the black. The index finished that year up 1.4 percent.

Edging out another gain of that size in 2011 wouldn’t make anyone rich. But consider the hand that investors were dealt this year: A tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan plunged the world’s third-largest economy into a recession and created a worldwide parts shortage. Uprisings throughout the Arab world sent the price of gas skyrocketing to an average of $3.98 a gallon in May. The U.S. lost its top-notch credit ranking for the first time. And Europe has teetered on the edge of a financial crisis that could hobble the region’s banking system.

With all of that going on, investors might wonder how the S&P 500 index could possibly end the year higher than where it started. The biggest reason: some think stocks may be the best value out there.

With dividend payments alone, the S&P index offers a return on par with low-risk U.S. Treasurys. From Aug. 24 through Thursday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was below the dividend yield of the S&P 500 index. Since 1962, the only other time that’s happened was during the 2008 credit crisis, according to J.P. Morgan.

“You have to have pretty dark thoughts to think that there’s not a chance that the S&P 500 beats out Treasurys at this point,” said Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Bank.

Stone also thinks company earnings are going to be better in the third quarter than many analysts expect, driving stock prices higher. Since July, analysts have cut back their estimates for the S&P 500′s third quarter earnings 3 percent because of concerns that the U.S. economy might be heading into a recession. Since then, retail sales, applications for unemployment benefits, and the number of jobs added in August have been better than Wall Street expected. “The market has been priced for the worst, but that’s not bearing out in reality,” Stone said.

Others point to the fact that the S&P 500 was stuck in a narrow trading range since Aug. 4th. That day, the index fell below 1,260 during a broad sell-off. The stock market has moved up and down a lot since then, but hasn’t really gone that far. The S&P 500 has mainly traded between 1,099 and 1,218, a relatively small band. On Friday it broke out of that range, closing at 1,224.

Investors who buy and sell the S&P 500 index based on analyzing patterns in charts — known on Wall Street as technical traders — believe that indexes will tend to keep moving steadily in the same direction once they break out of a trading range. That’s because investors tend to follow the herd. Increased confidence in Europe’s ability to prevent a widespread financial crisis may help the S&P 500 move out of that range and stay there.

“If we have truly averted the worst of Europe then a large dark cloud is going to be lifted off of this market and momentum is going to take over,” said Richard Ross, global technical analyst at Auerbach Grayson.

Seasonal investor behavior might also lift the S&P 500. The S&P index typically gains an average of 3.9 percent during the last three months of the year. “Positive market psychology hits a fever pitch as the holiday season approaches and does not begin to wane until the spring,” according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Professional investors also tend to readjust their portfolios at this time of year, buying stocks that have done well and selling those which have fared poorly for tax purposes.

That could have a greater than usual effect this year because the S&P 500 remains cheap, analysts say. At the start of the year, the S&P 500 traded at 15 times its earnings over the last 12 months. That was below the average price-to-earnings multiple of 18.6 over the last 10 years. Friday, the S&P 500 traded at 12.9 times earnings.

It’s not quite time to count on gains, however. The S&P 500 has fallen more than 10 percent 43 times since 1900, according to Sam Stovall, chief equity analyst at Standard & Poor’s. It finished the year with a gain only 11 times, a comeback rate of 26 percent. The average gain in those years was 1.8 percent.

“I’m skeptical of this rally,” Stovall said, noting that Europe’s debt problems still aren’t solved. “But even if there is a gain, history says that you’re not going to end up with anything to be too excited about.”

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Wall Street flat before Slovakia votes on fund (Reuters)



NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks were little changed on Tuesday, with major indexes seesawing between gains and losses before a key vote by Slovakia on expanding the euro zone rescue fund.

The back-and-forth moves on Wall Street follow several days of sharp gains. The S&P 500 has risen 8.7 percent over the past five days, its biggest five-day move since March 2009, as stocks recovered from steep losses tied to worries about the euro zone debt crisis.

Markets have been reacting to news from the euro zone where officials are trying to contain a debt crisis that threatens large European banks and global financial stability.

"It's been the biggest problem on the front burner for the U.S.," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Robert W. Baird & Co in Nashville. "It looks like it's being diffused."

With 16 of 17 euro zone states having ratified a pact to boost the size and powers of the European Financial Stability Facility bailout fund, all eyes turned to Slovakia. The country's finance minister said the country was expected to approve the changes this week.

Any more delays in coming up with a plan intended to head off crisis could give the market an excuse to sell. Stocks have reached the top of a recent range, hitting resistance around 1195 on the S&P 500.

With earnings season beginning after the close of trading with Alcoa Inc's (AA.N) profit report, investors hoped for more gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) was down 17.33 points, or 0.15 percent, at 11,415.85. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) was down 0.66 point, or 0.06 percent, at 1,194.23. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) was up 8.21 points, or 0.32 percent, at 2,574.26.

Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum company, was up 2.6 percent to $10.35, making it the best performer on the Dow.

"Expectations are so low that Alcoa doesn't have to say a lot in order to beat expectations," said King Lip, chief investment officer at Baker Avenue Asset Management in San Francisco.

In the past week, analysts have lowered their consensus earnings estimates for Alcoa, citing a precipitous drop in metals prices in recent months sparked by global economic concerns.

At midday, about one stock advanced for every decliner on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq. About 2.87 billion shares were traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, lower than average.

(Reporting by Ashley Lau; editing by Kenneth Barry)

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US stock futures fall before September jobs report (AP)



U.S. stock index futures are sinking ahead of the government’s September jobs report, which will likely show a U.S. labor market that remains weak.

Economists expect the report to show employers added only 56,000 net jobs in September, not nearly enough to keep up with population growth. They expect the unemployment to hold at 9.1 percent. It would be the fifth straight month of little or no job creation.

Employers slowed hiring as the economy softened, Europe’s debt crisis loomed and stock markets swung wildly.

Dow Jones industrial average futures are down 32 points, or 0.3 percent, at 11,014 at 7:39 a.m. Eastern time. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures are down 4, or 0.3 percent, at 1,154. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 8, or 0.4 percent, at 2,197.

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How will you know when to sell a stock before it actually drops in price?



An Anonymous User asked:




If you’re going to do trading but not necessarily on a very short regular basis, how will you exactly know when to sell the stock? Is it when a stock is overvalued?

If that’s the case, how do you exactly differentiate between a company that is currently overvalued because of mere rumors and a company that is overvalued because is has been performing unsatisfactorily?

And how will you know if it’s overvalued enough to the point that selling it is a right decision?

If I short a stock is there a max amount of days i have before i have to cover?



An Anonymous User asked:




I read somewhere if you sell short you only have 3 days

Buyers exit market before House debt plan vote (Reuters)



NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks faded in the afternoon on Thursday to end mostly lower, with investors skeptical a key vote by Congress would lead to a deal to avoid a U.S. default.

The S&P 500 fell for a fourth straight day as buyers kept to the sidelines while lawmakers tried to hash out an agreement on the deficit.

A vote on a Republican-led bill to raise the debt limit was expected in the U.S. House of Representatives after the close of trading on Thursday. The Democrat-controlled Senate is crafting a competing bill, and Democratic leaders have said the House bill, if passed, will be defeated in the Senate.

“During the course of the day, it became clear that even if (Republican House Speaker John) Boehner does get the vote, when it’s turned over to the Senate, the Senate is going to reject it. That seems to be the reason for the selling into strength,” said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey.

Analysts said dissension among the ranks of lawmakers has also made investors less certain that a deal can happen.

The wrangling over the U.S. deficit has boosted volatility as stocks have fallen. The S&P 500 is down 3.3 percent on the week, while the market’s fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX), rose to 23.74, the highest since mid-June.

“The lack of leadership has optimism flying at a very low altitude … It’s basically leaving investors very skittish,” said Steve Goldman, market strategist with Weeden & Co in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Stocks got an early lift from a dip in jobless claims and strong pending U.S. home sales data, a day after the S&P 500 posted its biggest fall in eight weeks.

Among gainers, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR.O) jumped 16.4 percent to $102.57 after the company said late Wednesday its third-quarter sales rose 18 percent. Green Mountain was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq, which ended slightly higher.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) ended down 62.44 points, or 0.51 percent, at 12,240.11. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (.SPX) was down 4.22 points, or 0.32 percent, at 1,300.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) finished up 1.46 points, or 0.05 percent, at 2,766.25.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N), the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, however, reported results that fell short of expectations and its stock slid 2.2 percent to $81.46.

After the close, shares of Starbucks (SBUX.O) rose 2.3 percent to $40.90 after it posted a profit that topped analysts’ expectations.

During the session, shares of Internet delivery company Akamai Technologies (AKAM.O) dropped 19.1 percent to $23.84, a day after it lowered its revenue growth target.

Buoying the market early in the day, pending sales of existing U.S. homes unexpectedly rose 2.4 percent in June from May and were up sharply from a year ago.

New weekly claims for unemployment benefits fell below 400,000 for the first time since early April.

Some 7.93 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, above the daily average of 7.47 billion.

Declines outweighed advances on the NYSE by about 3 to 2, while on Nasdaq losers were about even with winners.

“It’s institutional selling. It may be related to mutual fund redemptions,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.

(Additional reporting by Ashley Lau; Editing by Kenneth Barry and Dan Grebler)

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Wall Street near flat before debt vote (Reuters)



NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks were little changed and off the day’s highs on Thursday, with market sentiment mixed before a key vote in Congress on a plan to prevent a default.

Stocks got an early lift from strong pending U.S. home sales data and a dip in jobless claims, a day after the S&P 500 posted its biggest fall in eight weeks and its third day of losses.

Uncertainty over Washington’s ability to agree on a plan to reduce the U.S. budget deficit before an August 2 deadline has kept investors nervous about the possibility of a debt default or a U.S. credit ratings downgrade.

Some analysts expressed optimism that lawmakers may come to a deal ahead of the deadline, while others said they were less hopeful.

A vote on a bill to cut the U.S. deficit and raise the debt limit is expected after the close of trading on Thursday. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner is pushing to pass a bill in the Republican-majority House, while the Democratic-controlled Senate is crafting a competing bill.

“The market doesn’t want to move in a linear fashion,” said Thomas Villalta, portfolio manager for Jones Villalta Asset Management in Austin, Texas.

He said that is partly because of the dissension among the ranks of lawmakers, making investors less certain that a deal can happen.

Still, the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) was down 0.5 percent after three days of sharp gains.

“Volatility and volume are reflecting avoiding risk right now and waiting on clarity,” said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in San Francisco. “It’s mainly just a watching-and-waiting kind of situation” until the vote.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) was down 1.62 points, or 0.01 percent, at 12,300.93. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (.SPX) was up 1.97 points, or 0.15 percent, at 1,306.86. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) was up 12.92 points, or 0.47 percent, at 2,777.71.

Among gainers, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR.O) jumped 16.9 percent to $103.03 after the company said late Wednesday its third-quarter sales rose 18 percent. Green Mountain was among the top gainers on the Nasdaq.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N), the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, however, reported results that fell short of expectations and its stock fell 2.1 percent to $81.58.

Pending sales of existing U.S. homes unexpectedly rose 2.4 percent in June from May, up sharply from a year ago.

New weekly claims for unemployment benefits fell below 400,000 for the first time since early April.

(Additional reporting by Ashley Lau; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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